Video: UARS Burning Up Over Japan?

Let’s use some more common sense to analyze this.

First, it is not a rocket(it is not ascending, nor were any launches or reentries scheduled within a thousand miles for this time). Satellites of this size have only entered the atmosphere uncontrolled in this way a couple times in history(of which I doubt Level3 was alive for). Reentering objects *CAN* leave billowy smoke trails, especially if they were designed in the days of using all sorts of primitive materials for construction(asbestos anyone?). Notice also that the ‘billowy’ smoke stops a minute or so in, and turns into a simple cone of smoke/debris.

Second, it *DOES* turn into smaller pieces. If you actually watch the video, and pay attention, at about a minute in the size/shape of the trailing smoke changes, as if it has either passed completely through the atmosphere to a terminal velocity, or it has lost some chief burning component during the descent. There is a ‘cone’ left where the transition happens, so I would be inclined to believe that some smokey component finished burning up at this point.

It is not an aircraft contrail. The origin is too wide and singular, and an aircraft contrail usually forms a good distance behind the aircraft in rail-like shapes due to positions of the engines, pressure instability around the aircraft, and the delay in the water vapor properly forming a ‘cloud’. Furthermore, the origin of the contrail would be far too large to be an ordinary aircraft. Not even the new 787 Dreamliners ANA got are that visible from such a huge distance.

The appearance that it is staying at a certain level is the illusion. The flight path of the reentering satellite goes very nearly directly away from the viewer, which would explain why they could see it at such an apparently high altitude for so long. It is also possible to see the reentry for a long time given that even a slightly illuminated object in orbit is clearly visible from the ground. Who knows how high it was when they first spotted it? How long would it take a semi trailer to stop from 16,000+ km/hour using only air resistance?

As for the flight path being wrong, you don’t have the needed information to determine that. NASA doesn’t even know what happened to it – and they built the damned thing. Their projected path was an ‘estimate’ because UARS bounced off the atmosphere and changed orbit so many times. They had no idea where it was going to end up.

Have you ever watched (in person) a shuttle or rocket launch? You can see it fully into space, until well after rocket booster separation. When the shuttle launches from Florida, you can see it until it is hundreds and hundreds of miles away. If you know when/where to look, and it’s dark enough, you can see it in orbit as plain as day. With binoculars and good aim, you can spot it over Europe from the east coast. The fact is, there is just no way to tell how far away or high up the video subject is, because you can see orbital objects for insanely large distances.