Japan & Nuclear Radiation: Fear Mongering vs. Facts

I wake up this morning and sure enough – the international media has gone crazy with sensational reporting about the small radiation leak that occurred yesterday. Many papers and news networks are apparently still running with yesterday’s false report of a dangerous “radiation cloud” heading for Tokyo.

Although the Japanese people seem relatively calm, I am witnessing absurd levels of panic and fear among English-speaking twitter users and bloggers. Even a couple prominent Japan bloggers have fallen for radiation paranoia and conspiracy theories about Japanese government cover-ups. It’s quite sad.

With the blogosphere and the international media encouraging nuclear panic to increase television ratings and website pageviews, people all around the world are rushing to buy iodine. U.S. Surgeon General Regina Benjamin has even apparently succumbed to the hysteria by encouraging Americans to buy iodine tablets as a precaution.

DO NOT believe the news articles about “deadly radiation” threatening Tokyo. No officials have suggested that there is a need to evacuate the city. While there is a possible threat to the safety of people living within 30 kilometers of the Fukushima nuclear plant, there is absolutely no indication that significant amounts of radiation will threaten other areas. There is no reliable information out there that indicates that radiation leaks that have taken place or will take place in the future will threaten Tokyo, and the notion that the United States or Europe might be in danger is pretty much insane.

For reliable level-headed reports on what is actually happening here in Japan, please consult the following links:

Radiation Safety Update – Roy Berman & Matt Alt have compiled a very good collection of data about the events that occurred yesterday.
Wall Street Journal Video: Nuclear Risks in Japan – WSJ’s Mariko Sanchanta and Yumiko Ono separate fact from fiction in the latest nuclear reports.
Gakuranman’s Earthquake News Liveblog – Michael is tirelessly updating this blog as new information becomes available.
MIT NSE Nuclear Information Hub – News update site maintained by students of the Department of Nuclear Science and Engineering at MIT. Includes a modified re-post of Dr Josef Oehmen’s “Why I am not worried about Japan’s nuclear reactors.”
Check the following Twitter accounts for regular updates on the situation: Matt Alt, Roy Berman, Michael Gakuran, and Rick Martin, Tokyo Reporter.

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61 comments - What do you think? Posted by James - March 16, 2011 at 10:50 am

Categories: General Japan Tags:

david

Yeah well one of the reactors is on fire this morning and the radiation is so high the workers are not going anywhere near it. You cannot say Tokyo will be fine through all of this.
- William
  
  Ummm…Yes, you can. Fukushima is not Tokyo. The fires are out, the radiation level is normal in Tokyo…so…again yes, you can.
Piglet

I am working at a Nuclear-related institution in Japan. It is true that the fears of dangerous radiation for Tokyo are greatly exaggerated in the current situation.

However, this is a very significant event involving the release of significant amounts of radioactive material in the environment. This is NOT business as usual and the workers at the plant are working hard to avoid the worse case scenario (complete meltdown), which might release much bigger amounts of radioactivity in the environment.

The concerns about the reliability of information provided by TEPCO and the Japanese government are justified in my opinion. TEPCO has since the beginning of the crisis been unable to provide complete and accurate information (PM Kan was very angry at TEPCO officials yesterday because they did not inform him about an explosion at the site, he learned it through TV reports). The Japanese government is also trying to reassure the population (in order to avoid mass panic), but their communication is very confused. NHK is “the voice of the government” more than ever, so I would trust it only for general quake / practical information.

No need to panic, however it is reasonable to watch the situation as it unfolds in case the worse case scenario might occur.
- http://theinconvenienttruthonwhaling.blogspot.com/ kujirakira
  
  This is a very significant event, no doubt about that. People will be talking about it for decades to come, medical and design studies will be conducted for just as long, etc.
  
  However, watching CNN right now the levels of hysteria are ridiculous. They have just said several times that this is quickly heading towards Chernobyl. They stop short of advising people to get iodine… but they heavily plant the thought that everyone might want to think about it.
  I don’t even want to switch over to MSNBC or Fox seeing as immediately after the tsunami they were using footage of the burning oil refinery in Chiba while discussing Fukushima.
  
  In my opinion, the sooner somebody like IAEA steps in the better — even if only from a media fear-mongering perspective.
  - http://theinconvenienttruthonwhaling.blogspot.com/ kujirakira
    
    To follow up on this — CNN now saying that, when this goes Chernobyl, there will be millions of people with radiation poisoning… according to their weather man using elaborate photos very similar to the hoax one that was posted a few days ago.
    - http://www.japanprobe.com James
      
      Can you get a screen cap of that?
    - http://theinconvenienttruthonwhaling.blogspot.com/ kujirakira
      
      No idea how to get screenshots off cable tv, but it was on Anderson Cooper tonight.
    - jcpb
      
      If you have a TV tuner, the TV viewing software might have an option allowing you to take a screenshot.
    - http://theinconvenienttruthonwhaling.blogspot.com/ kujirakira
      
      I don’t, I think my only option is to take a photo of the tv itself. I plan to be up late working tonight anyway so I might check when Anderson Cooper gets replayed.
    - http://theinconvenienttruthonwhaling.blogspot.com/ kujirakira
      
      Here, knock yourself out. When the wind changes, you’ll all be looking at “heavy radiation” according to CNN.
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aKTp8DN3I00
gaijin

I heard P.M. kan ordered the president of Tokyo power co. not to let the onsite safety engineers to evacuate. Obviously someone has to be the sacrificial goat for the great common good. But I think P.M. Kan should have ordered the top executives of Tepco. to join these heroic engineers in the control room. They are after all the ones who continually reassured the people of Fukishima that their power plants were completely safe. Now the president and other responsible top execs order the humble engineers to be exposed to extremely dangerous levels of radioactivity while they stay relatively safe from afar.

On a little off note I’ve been trying to see at least one jet that was supposedly washed away at Sendai airport. There must have been anywhere from 10-20 of them on the tarmac at the time of the tsunami and yet I can only find videos of light aircraft that were washed away. Did they somehow fly most of the jets out of there just before the tsunami hit? Does anyone know of any sites where I can see an actual jet being washed away?
- jcpb
  
  Without access to security camera footage from Sendai airport, we might never know. However, from the near-continuous Japanese TV coverage in the ~72 hours after the main quake hit (I returned home safely, btw) I spotted a plane that got washed away with the other debris.
jcpb

Western media has turned a what’s supposedly an event of serious concern and nothing more, into a blatant cash grab. Not surprising at all.
Mike

if i lived anywhere in japan i would be worry. until the core 100% cools itself, you will never know what will happens. you can’t just assume things will be ok. even the USA needs to be worry because a jet stream winds are blowing from japan across the pacific ocean to the west coast, any radioactive in the air would eventually comes across the jet steam and reach the west coast.
- William
  
  No one is assuming anything. Intelligent people are using facts and publicly available information to keep themselves calm…because there is no need to panic. The amount of radiation is not enough to cause problems on the West Coast of the US…and this fact has been reported many times.
butakun

I was with Skynews crew in Sendai till last night. They panicked yesterday apparently because their “expert” in London ordered them to evacuate right away, and ran toward Yamagata without sufficient fuel (we were in the middle of Sendai Port still raging with fire). I helped them get an emergency vehicle sticker from the Miyagi Prefectural Police HQ, so at least they get a priority access at gas stations and free pass to Tohoku Highway. They were shouting at me and the driver to put on 3M antiradioactive mask made of paper (is there such thing?), which I did, just to shut them up. The funny thing is that they are coming back to the coastal region today (as there is nothing interesting to report in Zao, Yamagata, the destruction is not “beautiful” enough as they say) and get another sensationalism footages in Kesennuma.
- jcpb
  
  Disturbing… animals are calmer than these Westerners in times of crisis.
- http://theinconvenienttruthonwhaling.blogspot.com/ kujirakira
  
  The sensationalism that pervades our media is like a cancer.
http://whatjapanthinks.com Ken Y-N

So, who are the couple of prominent Japan bloggers who have fallen for the hype? Go on, name names!
- http://theinconvenienttruthonwhaling.blogspot.com/ kujirakira
  
  I’ll bet you $10 one of them starts with a D…
- http://www.japanprobe.com James
  
  I think you know the answer, Ken.
  - http://theinconvenienttruthonwhaling.blogspot.com/ kujirakira
    
    I guess that means I’ll have to give the bet to the Red Cross.
    http://www.google.co.jp/intl/en/crisisresponse/japanquake2011.html
FMD

I hate to break it to you, but what’s happening is super serious and if I was a foreigner living in Japan I’d be getting the hell out of there like most all the foreign researchers currently working in Japan.

Why would you want to put yourself at risk? The plant is irrecoverable and the surrounding area is going full blown chernobyl as we speak.
- grrreen
  
  Because people have lives and families here that they can’t just pick up and leave at the drop of a hat? because not everyone can afford a last-minute plane ticket out of the country? Because this is our home?
- http://tepido.org/ LB
  
  Why would you want to put yourself at risk?
  
  I’d get more radiation exposure on the flight home than I would by staying put. Not to mention the risks of dying in a crash, or being hit by a car/stabbed/shot/what-have-you after arriving in the States. All of those risks are currently much higher than the “risk” of being irradiated by Fukushima.
  
  The plant is irrecoverable
  
  Well you got that one right anyway, but broken clocks and all that…
  
  and the surrounding area is going full blown chernobyl as we speak.
  
  No, it is not, and it cannot. Japanese build “containment shells”, the Russians did not.
  - FMD
    
    The uncontrollable risk associated with developing cancer as a result of radiation exposure compared to the perceptive risks associated with getting into a car accident or being stabbed aren’t really comparable.
    
    Also regardless of how you want to define the term “chernobyl,” the area surrounding the plant is presently contaminated and is in effect going to become a wasteland, do you think new housing developments are going to be built in the area?
    
    Finally, the containment shell has already been breached. Whether or not the material is being contained from the bottom nobody knows, it may be breached and leaking into the ground as we speak. Only time will reveal the full extent of contamination and right now it’s not stopping and only getting worse.
    - jcpb
      
      Does this mean I have to toss out ALL smoke detectors because they may contain minute amounts of radioactive material, thus increasing my risk of radiation exposure?
      
      The chances of you getting excessive radiation exposure are far less than the chances of you getting killed through text-and-driving. They are not comparable.
      
      There is so much fear-mongering in your post, it’s sickening and makes me lower my head in shame… people can be so ignorant and stupid… ahem.
  - leitmotiv
    
    Japanese build “containment shells”,
    
    Clarification would be helpful. Are the 1000s of tons of spent fuel (that are in danger of overheating from lack of coolant) inside or outside of these shells?
- jcpb
  
  The plant is irrecoverable, sure, but everything within 30km of Fukushima Dai-ichi is going Chernobyl? You should check your sources again.
  
  Explain to me how a partial meltdown event at that plant can fully contaminate Naha, Okinawa besides radioactive material being spread through jet streams. You are not making any sense at all, and as a foreigner myself I pity you.
- fish taco
  
  Actually it is a completely different type of reactor under completely different circumstances than Chernobyl. It’s almost certain that it will be nothing like Chernobyl. I saw CNN comparing it to the atomic bomb a bit ago. Really you can convert a reactor into an atomic bomb? Tell that to Iran.
  
  It is a serious situation, the problem is it’s hard to get any reliable information about it. That’s the whole point of this post isn’t it.
- britling
  
  It’s not going “full blown chernobyl”. Stop getting your news from organisations that want clicks and sales. Panic-buying and gasoline-hoarding are not getting us anyway, and people who have panicked and got in their cars are simply putting more strain on the infrastructure.
  
  No doubt you will be stockpiling iodine and investing in a geiger counter. Actually, you will put your health at risk more from swallowing anti-radiation pills than from the actual radiation leak. That’s strong medicine that can easily make a healthy person ill.
  
  The maximum level of radiation measured in Shinjuku yesterday was measured at a similar level to the natural radiation absorbed by people living in Cornwall, England. In other regions, natural radiation is even higher. In other words, there are people around the world soaking up more radiation from rocks than from the Fukushima reactors.
  - FMD
    
    Maybe I should have clarified in my original post by instead saying that heed should be taken because, yes, obviously Tokyo is fine right now. Will it fine tomorrow? Probably. Will it be in a week? Maybe. Longer? Who knows. Fact of the matter is contaminated material doesn’t just disappear and the problem isn’t going to go away like a wildfire that’s finally been extinguished. Which is why trying to down-play the seriousness of this current situation by casting it off as fear mongering.
    
    I’m not worried about exposure where I’m located so there’s no need for those materials.
    - britling
      
      No, radiation doesn’t just disappear. You’re absorbing it right now from rocks. The levels fall significantly even in the distance from the reactors to the main gates.
    - jcpb
      
      You should wrap yourself in aluminum foil so you don’t take any unwanted radiation from your surroundings.
      
      Tokyo needs to be hit with a minimum of 10,000 times plus its current radiation levels before it gets to be declared unsafe. 0.006 on the Geiger counter, a slight rise from the previous day, OMFG GET OUT OF THE CITY!! lolez.
      
      The Sun gives off radiation, are we going to send some nukes to destroy it so it stops giving off radiation?
- http://www.japanprobe.com James
  
  I hear that aluminum foil is very effective at blocking dangerous radiation.
  
  Your head is most vulnerable, so wrap it well before Japan goes “full blown chernobyl.”
- staying in Narita
  
  ‘full blown Chernobyl’
  
  did you even read the above article?
  
  ‘what’s happening is super serious’
  
  yes it is – your predilection for panic is not required. We’re already doing what we can in the face of these disasters.
  
  ‘Why would you want to put yourself at risk?’
  
  For my family, friends, neighbors, coworkers and other fellow human beings who don’t have the option of leaving. People are sitting in shelters with little food and medicine, no diapers for their kids, no toilet paper, etc. while it is snowing on what is left of their homes. Forgive me for not fleeing in the face of poorly fact-checked sensationalism.
  
  In the middle of typing this, there was another M6.0 earthquake of the coast of where I am working. We evacuated the building, got the all clear call and are back inside. It was all done quietly and efficiently and no one panicked.
- William
  
  I think it is heading for YOU, wherever you are. You should leave your entire life that you have built up to this point and just run in the opposite direction of something because someone said that something might happen on twitter…
http://foreignsalaryman.blogspot.com/ Salaryman

I just want to say thank you to Japanprobe.com, you’re providing quite a lot of very useful links and resources for us living in the Tokyo area, very much appreciated keep it up!
- Tony D
  
  Agreed, you guys have done a great job. I might take exception to an article now and again but everything about this disaster has been sane, level-headed, and properly sourced. Unlike most of the media over the last few days…
http://hanlonsrzr.blogspot.com Mr. S.

Thank you for this, and I agree. I came to the same way of thinking and cancelled tickets to leave (not that I was sure we could even get to Narita). My logic: http://hanlonsrzr.blogspot.com/2011/03/staying.html
- jcpb
  
  You can get to Narita by train, of course they’re running on much-reduced schedules due to rolling blackouts. Keisei suspended all Skyliner/Cityliner/Eveningliner services on the day I left, replaced by regular rapid trains, so the ride took ~2 hours instead of the usual 40 minutes. At least it cost only 1000 yen to reach the airport instead of the usual 2400 yen on Skyliner.
  - http://hanlonsrzr.blogspot.com Mr. S.
    
    Thanks. Aware of this but happy to have people sharing information. Stay safe, wherever you got to.
david

This morning a huge radiation cloud has been released from reactor 3, who’s containment chamber is supposedly broken now. Still so positive about the outlook for Tokyo? If the wind blows this way, you better not go outside.
- Stranger
  
  Quick someone make fun of the French who took off a couple of days ago.
  - ZZ
    
    You mean the ones that mostly ignored the warning cause it wasn’t an official embassy warning but one from a civilian association loosely affiliated with the embassy and announcing it through the embassy’s broadcast channels?
    - http://hanlonsrzr.blogspot.com Mr. S.
      
      Immature, but I couldn’t resist: http://hanlonsrzr.blogspot.com/2011/03/french-embassy-in-tokyo.html
- http://tepido.org/ LB
  
  And the reading at the plant was…..
  
  2399 microsieverts at 10:20 am, dropping to 1361 microsieverts 10 minutes later. That was directly at the plant, readings dropped dramatically the further away from the plant they were taken.
  
  For reference, a mammogram is typically a 3000 microsievert dose. A GI scan is 14,000 microsieverts.
  
  Oh…
  My…
  God…
  
  Please, stay inside. In as small a space as possible, like a luggage trunk or refrigerator. Make certain it is airtight, and seal yourself inside to keep yourself “safe”.
- Level3
  
  it’s spelled “whose”
  Go play with something shiny.
- http://www.japanprobe.com James
  
  -Radiation levels at the nuclear plant were quite high this morning. It has dropped since. Although there has been fluctuation, no sign of a big new leak.
  
  -Absolutely no information whatsoever about a “huge radiation cloud”, but it is being assumed that there is some radiation in it. The “cloud” that leaked yesterday also had radiation in it, and it was not a threat to Tokyo.
  
  -No plan to increase in the evacuation range.
  
  -Hours after the white smoke has been rising from #3, Geiger counters throughout the Kanto region are showing no dangerous increases.
  
  -No evidence yet that it is enough radiation to threaten the safety of anyone outside of the 30km range.
  
  -Wind is blowing out to the sea today.
  - david
    
    The radiation levels at the plant are high enough that all work has stopped. That means all reactors are no longer have water pumped in and being cooled. But hey, keep being upbeat about it and it will alllll be ok.
    - http://tepido.org/ LB
      
      The radiation levels at the plant are high enough that all work has stopped.
      
      WRONG!
      
      Radiation levels briefly spiked to a level where workers were temporarily evacuated. They returned as soon as levels dropped to a safer level. Work has resumed as of hours ago.
      
      Are you just skimming headlines without bothering to read anything else?
ZZ

Since there is a link already for Mariko Sanchanta’s stuff, I would suggest her following her at @sanchanta. She’s keeping herself very level headed and working hard to get rid of disinformation. (Some of which, I am sure, is coming from the lackluster job of translations going on in some news organizations.)
Piglet

In a worse case scenario, there will small amounts of radioactive elements arriving in Tokyo (not life threatening for sure). However, I think it is quite sensible from the French embassy to suggest those who don’t have strong reason to stay to take a few days off and propose to bring them back to France: the stress levels are high, work efficiency is very low (most people in most companies keep watching news half of the time), train schedules are changing, blackouts might last for a while, and there is a risk of a strong earthquake that add to the current mess.
I would recommend those who still have days off to take it and relax elsewhere in Japan or another country. I am actually considering taking my annual days off very soon (instead of this summer).
britling

Professor Sir John Beddington, the UK’s top scientist, has outlined the worst-case scenario at the link below. He has a beard, reassuringly, and is able to tell us that no, contrary to the hysteria, this won’t be like Chernobyl even if anything that can go boom does go boom.

http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/24103/professor_sir_john_beddington_reasonable_to_understand_the_worst_case_scenario.html
- fish taco
  
  Nice to see some sane comments. I’ve actually been following this blog http://bravenewclimate.com for the past few days. I’m not sure if it’s 100% reliable but the guy goes into very detailed explanations that sound quite reassuring. Maybe he knows what he is talking about or he is just very convincing, but his conclusion is also that this will never be as bad as Chernobyl.
  
  This post is actually a good read as it goes into detail of the construction and working of the light water reactors in an easy to understand manner. http://bravenewclimate.com/2011/03/13/fukushima-simple-explanation/
wut?

I’m kind of lost, so many people down playing saying the radioactivity released is less than you get from rock and the environment. If that is true then what exactly did the carrier Ronald Regan pass through bringing aid to japan that gave its crew members a month dose of radiation in an hr? I don’t think anyone should be running around and panicking but everyone here saying everyone is just fear mongering and blowing it out of proportions is wrong. This is serious, no the plant will not go “full chernobyl” but you can’t completely disregard what is going on and play it off as others panicking and you staying level headed, that just foolish and you will pay for your arrogance in one way or another.
- jcpb
  
  Isn’t USS Ronald Reagan a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier?
  
  The western media ARE overhyping and fear mongering this potential meltdown situation for ratings and profits, thus they cannot be trusted. Taking a measure of radioactivity at the affected reactor and treating it as the measure for the entire affected area. Like, yeah right.
  - http://tepido.org/ LB
    
    Yes, the Reagan is a CVN. There is a certain irony about the Navy being worried about radiation on a nuclear carrier…
Marshaka777

Nothing like hind sight. Now the facts have been released that one reactor melted down the same day the tsunami struck and two more melted down later. Proving this article was a pure crock of $hit.
- VK
  
  No, it proves the article was correct. There was no deadly radiation cloud headed for Tokyo or any need to evacuate the capital. Radiation readings in Tokyo were not falsified. No one will even have been harmed by drinking the water there. The only qualification this article needs is that there were slightly excessive deposits of radioactive just outside the 30km zone in a couple of places.
  
  You’re confusing “worse than originally thought” with “as worse as many media items were trying to tell us”. The meltdown is bad news for the local area and the cost of clean-up, not directly for people in Tokyo.

Japan & Nuclear Radiation: Fear Mongering vs. Facts

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