British, Australian, and American Governments: No Serious Radiation Threat to Tokyo
Just in case you are wondering how some governments are reacting to the Fukushima nuclear accident, here are some excerpts from statements that the United States, Australia, and U.K. have made to their citizens in Japan.
A summary of the British government’s official view:
* In case of a ‘reasonable worst case scenario’ (defined as total meltdown of one reactor with subsequent radioactive explosion) an exclusion zone of 30 miles (50km) would be the maximum required to avoid affecting peoples’ health. Even in a worse situation (loss of two or more reactors) it is unlikely that the damage would be significantly more than that caused by the loss of a single reactor.
* The current 20km exclusion zone is appropriate for the levels of radiation/risk currently experienced, and if the pouring of sea water can be maintained to cool the reactors, the likelihood of a major incident should be avoided. A further large quake with tsunami could lead to the suspension of the current cooling operations, leading to the above scenario.
* The bottom line is that these experts do not see there being a possibility of a health problem for residents in Tokyo. The radiation levels would need to be hundreds of times higher than current to cause the possibility for health issues, and that, in their opinion, is not going to happen (they were talking minimum levels affecting pregnant women and children – for normal adults the levels would need to be much higher still).
* The experts do not consider the wind direction to be material. They say Tokyo is too far away to be materially affected.
* If the pouring of water can be maintained the situation should be much improved after ten days, as the reactors’ cores cool down.
* Information being provided by Japanese authorities is being independently monitored by a number of organizations and is deemed to be accurate, as far as measures of radioactivity levels are concerned.
* This is a very different situation from Chernobyl, where the reactor went into meltdown and the encasement, which exploded, was left to burn for weeks without any control. Even with Chernobyl, an exclusion zone of 30 miles would have been adequate to protect human health. The problem was that most people became sick from eating contaminated food, crops, milk and water in the region for years afterward, as no attempt was made to measure radioactivity levels in the food supply at that time or warn people of the dangers. The secrecy over the Chernobyl explosion is in contrast to the very public coverage of the Fukushima crisis.
An excerpt from the Australian government’s statement:
Based on advice from the Japanese government and the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Australian Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety Agency (ARPANSA) reports that, although unlikely, there is a small chance of exposure to radiation, at very low levels, for people who were in the Fukushima area and an isolated area near Onagawa prior to noon on 15 March 2011. The health effects from exposure at these low levels are considered very low to negligible.
For those Australians in Japan but outside the affected areas, based on current information, ARPANSA advises that since the winds are presently blowing off shore from the Fukushima area they are extremely unlikely to be contaminated and the health risks are negligible. As the situation develops, all Australians in Japan are strongly encouraged to continue to follow the protective measures recommended by the Japanese Government.
Given the very low risk of exposure, ARPANSA advises that people should have no physical symptoms. If there is any doubt about contamination this contamination is easily removed by washing your body and clothes.
The Australian government is, however, authorizing the voluntary departure of dependants of Australian officials from Tokyo – not because of the nuclear accident, but because of fears of earthquakes and transportation interruptions.
An excerpt from U.S. Ambassador Roos’ statement:
After a careful analysis of data, radiation levels, and damage assessments of all units at Fukushima, our experts are in agreement with the response and measures taken by Japanese technicians, including their recommended 20 km radius for evacuation and additional shelter-in-place recommendations out to 30 km.
Let me also address reports of very low levels of radiation outside the evacuation area detected by U.S. and Japanese sensitive instrumentation. This bears very careful monitoring, which we are doing. If we assess that the radiation poses a threat to public health, we will share that information and provide relevant guidance immediately.
And from the White House:
White House Press secretary Jay Carney said Tuesday that U.S. officials have determined that Americans in Japan should follow the same guidance the Japanese government is giving to its citizens.
The Japanese government has warned people within 20 miles of the nuclear reactor complex damaged in the earthquake and tsunami to stay indoors to avoid exposure.
Update: A little bit more from the US Embassy. Still nothing at all about a radiation threat to Tokyo, which is far more than 80km from the area:
Consistent with the NRC guidelines that apply to such a situation in the United States, we are recommending, as a precaution, that American citizens who live within 50 miles (80 kilometers) of the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant evacuate the area or to take shelter indoors if safe evacuation is not practical.
We want to underscore that there are numerous factors in the aftermath of the earthquake and tsunami, including weather, wind direction and speed, and the nature of the reactor problem that affect the risk of radioactive contamination within this 50 mile (80 km) radius or the possibility of lower-level radioactive materials reaching greater distances.
The British authorities have issued an official statement, which still agrees with the Japanese assessment of radiation risks. It looks like the statements of the experts (mentioned in the earlier summary) have been washed through the PR people in their office, so as to sound as cautious as possible:
The most recent advice from the UK’s Chief Scientific Adviser remains that for those outside the exclusion zone set up by the Japanese authorities there is no real human health issue that people should be concerned about. This advice is kept under constant review. However, due to the evolving situation at the Fukushima nuclear facility and potential disruptions to the supply of goods, transport, communications, power and other infrastructure, British nationals in Tokyo and to the north of Tokyo should consider leaving the area.
The revised statements look more like they’re aimed at domestic audiences than actual residents of Japan. In both countries, the media is running hyper-sensationalist stories about radiation dangers, so the State Department and Foreign Office have probably been overwhelmed with phone calls from hysterical people who are claiming that not enough is being done to protect their citizens from the giant clouds of deadly radiation that are supposedly flying all over Japan.
In the case of the United States, somebody probably questioned why the Embassy agreed with Japan, when in fact American nuclear regulations call for a 50 mile evacuation area. To be consistent with its own domestic policies, the United States revised the Japan figure.
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