Evidence of Sumo Bout Fixing

Surprise, surprise! Investigators have found evidence of widespread match-fixing within the Japan Sumo Association:

The evidence was found in e-mails on 13 wrestlers’ mobile phones, seized by the Metropolitan Police Department (MPD) in its ongoing gambling investigation. About 50 e-mail exchanges from March through June last year indicate that the wrestlers bought and sold victories for sums in the hundreds of thousands of yen, as well as traded victories and losses from tournament to tournament — evidence directly at odds with the Japan Sumo Association (JSA)’s repeated denials of any bout fixing. The e-mails even apparently go so far as to list amounts to be paid and bank account numbers, as well as how exactly the fixed bouts would unfold in the ring.

Over the years, various allegations have come out regarding match fixing and the JSA has successfully sued publishers responsible for printing such stories. The JSA will likely try to claim that these match fixing e-mails are totally different and very recent development.

This news should come as no shock to those of you out there who have read the 2005 book Freakonomics, which contains a section about sumo wrestling:

One example of the authors’ use of economic theory involves demonstrating the existence of cheating among sumo wrestlers. In a sumo tournament, all wrestlers in the top division compete in 15 matches and face demotion if they do not win at least eight of them. The sumo community is very close-knit, and the wrestlers at the top levels tend to know each other well. The authors looked at the final match, and considered the case of a wrestler with seven wins, seven losses, and one fight to go, fighting against an 8-6 wrestler. Statistically, the 7-7 wrestler should have a slightly below even chance, since the 8-6 wrestler is slightly better. However, the 7-7 wrestler actually wins around 80% of the time. Levitt uses this statistic and other data gleaned from sumo wrestling matches, along with the effect that allegations of corruption have on match results, to conclude that those who already have 8 wins collude with those who are 7-7 and let them win, since they have already secured their position for the following tournament.

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Jordan

Although I’ve always considered the case (namely their proof) as presented in Freakonomics as pretty sketchy (a 7-7 wrestler should have a slightly below even chance against an opponent who is 8-6? Really? How do you figure that? That doesn’t take into consideration opponents fought, injuries, etc. Not to mention the fact that fighters who are the most able to pay for wins, namely those of rank Ozeki, have often found themselves going into kadoban after getting a losing record during a basho. There are plenty of cases of Ozeki being demoted after two losing basho. Wouldn’t they just pay their way out of it to begin with? Lower ranked wrestlers don’t have nearly as much cash to be able to do such things. The Freakonomics proof is, in my opinion rather scant. /end rant), but this isn’t a surprise. It’s good that they’ve finally got some sort of proof to this. Hopefully after the NSK is wiped out along with their relationship with the yaks, we’ll be able to see the real sport of it all.

It’ll be better for everyone.

sublight

In any individual match, you’d be right; there are other factors which can swing an individual wrestler’s chances away from 50-50 (both for and against him). When a sample of hundreds of matches shows a win record of 80%, however, something is definitely going on. An 80% win record would be equivalent to finishing 12-3, which is grand champion level.
sublight

Further, Levitt also looked at the records of these 7-7 wrestlers in the following basho. When going up against the rikishi they had previously defeated when they had a 7-7 record, their winning percentage suddenly dropped into the cellar, regardless of their performance for the rest of the basho.

Interestingly, David Benjamin did the same analysis and came to the same conclusion back in 1992 in his book “The Joy of Sumo”.

RMilner

It wouldn’t require collusion for a 8-6 wrestler to decide to “take a fall” to help out a pal who is on 7-7.

The 7-7 guy is presumably trying to win the bout, after all, so the other guy just has to slip a bit.

That in itself does not rule out collusion in other circumstances, of course.
Level3

I am as shocked, SHOCKED as Claude Rains in Casablanca.
Vonskippy

When will people learn – ALL PROFESSIONAL WRESTLING is a scam.
Kyle.

Why so Serious brah?

Evidence of Sumo Bout Fixing

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