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Japan Vulnerable to DPRK Missile Attack

Defense analyst Isaku Okabe tells FTV news that the new Musudan missiles displayed in North Korea’s recent military parade are a serious threat to Japan:

He says that the SM-3 Block II missile defense system that Japan and America are working on is designed to stop missiles like the Musudan, but the current SM-3 Block IA system will likely fail to stop a Musudan attack.

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8 comments - What do you think? Posted by James - October 13, 2010 at 6:37 am

Categories: Anti-Japan, Technology Tags: missiles, rocket science, tech, Technology

Vonskippy

Wow, lets all be scared about North Korea Technology – NOT.

Just because they put a shell on a launcher in a parade doesn’t mean they can actually fire it with any type of success – especially with a payload big enough to do any real damage – and then actually hit their target a few thousand kilometers away.

I wouldn’t start digging your missile shelter just yet.

William

Why so many downvotes for you? I think your comment is accurate. Why do people always want to believe the most unlikeliest scenario that has no hard facts to back it up? Why do people want to be scared? Domestic terrorism has hurt more Japanese people than North Korea…
helical

So tell me, if they could manage at least a sub-nuclear explosion a few years back, and have at least one type of missile that has been mostly successfully in launching distances that can cover all of Japan except for a few remote islands in the Pacific … then when IS a good time to start being scared?

“Pfft, a CEP of 1000m? Oooh, I’m so scared now.”
“Oh shit, it’s 500m now, get the shovels!”
Magus

People are downvoting because almost any country on the planet has the capacity to produce missiles that can go 1000km. North Korea has successfully detonated a nuclear bomb in a controlled experiment, what makes you think that they can’t build a rocket and put some bombs on the tips? Military missiles were made nearly 70 years ago; and even back then, though Nazi Germany wasn’t capable of accurate strikes, it didn’t prevent them from trying to turn London into the surface of the moon by launching tons and tons of inaccurate rockets.

Fear that North Korea is capable of striking Japan is a real fear, and one that the defense industry should take VERY seriously.

Fear that North Korea would actually go through with such an attack (which would probably lead to an attack by South Korea, Japan, US, and perhaps other allied forces, as well as probable diplomatic abandonment by Russia, and maybe even China if things go badly enough) is a different story.

vonskippy

And you have proof that “any” country can launch a missile – carrying a significant payload – and hit it’s target (or close to it) 90% of the time?

Except for the top first world nations – that’s a resounding NO.

NK has shot off a few TEST shots – that’s no where near “proof” that they can mass produce even dozens, let alone hundreds of missiles and maintain that inventory at ready to fire status.

As to NK having nukes, that’s another big fat NO. All of their tests fizzled (not even close to a single KT yield). At best they have “dirty bomb” capability. Nor do they have the launch capability to send a nuke much farther then Seoul (sucks to have such unstable neighbors so close – I’d move if I lived in Seoul).

And sending a nazi V-2 rocket across the channel (around 50km) is not quite the same thing as crossing the east sea (around 2000km).

Is North Korea run by lunatics – sure. Are they rocket scientist type lunatics – NO.

As long as China isn’t shipping either tech or actual missiles to NK, there’s not much to worry about in Japan from the NK’s lunatic fringe. And China sure as hell doesn’t want their NK puppets to have 2000km+ rockets that can be pointed in any direction (including inland).

This is nothing but political pandering – I’m guessing Isaku Okabe has a book deal on the near horizon and wanted a few more people to panic to up his sales.

http://tepido.org/ LB

“And sending a nazi V-2 rocket across the channel (around 50km) is not quite the same thing as crossing the east sea (around 2000km).”

1. The V2 had a maximum effective range of 320km – many were launched from Poland against the UK and western Europe, not just across the channel.

2. The distance from Pyongyang on North Korea’s west coast to Tokyo on Japan’s east coast is 1300 km. That is about the greatest distance any missile launched against Japan from the peninsula would ever have to travel.

By the way – Beijing is only 800km from Pyongyang, easily within range North Korea already.

3. Launching Scud or Rodong or Musudan is exactly the same thing as launching a V2 was 65 years ago. You locate your launch position, locate where you want the missile to come down, calculate the trajectory required to connect those two points. You give the rocket enough fuel to achieve a certain altitude after which the engine stops and gravity takes over, pulling the rocket into a ballistic arc. You pre-trim the rocket so that while under power it flies at a certain angle – a simple gyroscope will maintain that angle for you.

Ballistic missiles are very, very simple technology of the “what goes up must come down” variety. The basic mechanics were known for a very, very long time before rocket-propelled missiles were physically possible – it is called “ballistics”. You may argue that North Korea still has not figured this level of basic knowledge out, however the very successful launches of a couple of hundred North Korean-built missiles by Iran against Iraq would show that you really don’t have a clue what you are talking about.

I could continue, but continuing to counter your “arguments” would be venturing into “shooting very large fish in a very small barrel with a howitzer” territory, so I’ll stop here.

gustaf

since howitzers are usually firing projectiles at high trajectories, hitting that barrel might be harder than you think
sweetwhale

the following countries all currently have land-based missles
capable of striking one or more of the four main islands of Japan:

(1) North Korea
(2) South Korea (!)
(3) China
(4) Taiwan
(5) Russia
(6) USA (!)

by the way, the first 5 nations on the list have unresolved
territorial disputes with Japan.

Japan Vulnerable to DPRK Missile Attack

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