70 percent of fugitives wanted for heinous crimes remain at large for over 5 years
October 27th, 2008 by James
Mainichi reports that murderers who evade Japanese police long enough to be placed on wanted lists have a pretty good chance of staying free for years:
As of Oct. 16 last year, 1,933 people were on wanted lists, the NPA said. Police departments across the country are placing priority on their investigations into 579 individuals, and 125 of them are accused of involvement in heinous crimes.
Of the 125, 24 fugitives, including 11 who are suspected of committing murder, have been at large for 10 years or more, while 63 others including 33 murder suspects have been on the loose for between five and 10 years.
Those who have not yet been captured are probably hiding and waiting until they can turn themselves in without facing any penalty. The statute of limitations on murder is 15 years for murders committed prior to 2005 and 25 years for murders committed in or after 2005.
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I wonder how this rate compares to other countries. We all know about Japan’s infamously high conviction rate, but is Japan’s fugitive rate also notably higher than other nations?
And has there ever been a “Japan’s Most Wanted” fugitive-focused TV show? I’m guessing not, considering their strict slander laws.
http://www.japanprobe.com/?p=6443
There are such shows (post is about Ichihashi, but the show had two or three other high profile wanted killers).
According to Yahoo!answer the ration of, for instance , the murder recognized to the clear-ups is more than 94% in Japan. 64％ in US、83％ in UK 、79％ in France 、95％ in Germany
http://detail.chiebukuro.yahoo.co.jp/qa/question_detail/q1410671479?fr=rcmd_chie_detail
I don’t understand why high conviction rate itself is a bad thing.
BTW, The English translation of the article is a bit misleading.
The ratio of offences to detections for violent crime is different from the ratio of the fugitive wanted to the arrest.
And the the point of the article is
One reason the arrest rate for wanted fugitive does not increase is because people are more unconcerned with each other, according to the police—you commit a crime, and once you escape and live among people , people don’t care who you really are, but it might be that the statute of limitations motivates the fugitives more to hide–you hide successfully long enough, you are free, according to the author.
Move along please…
This page is just public opinion, not exactly hard data.
http://detail.chiebukuro.yahoo.co.jp/qa/question_detail/q1410671479?fr=rcmd_chie_detail
Any old wag could have written this unsupported entry, then people voted that this was the best answer. Japan comes out on top, voted by Japanese people – hardly surprising.
Look at any Yahoo questions page and the ‘home’ country will vote in favour of answers that make the home country look good.
Japan comes out on the top when it comes to the conviction rate; still, it is interpreted as a fault of Japan’s system.
Anyway my point is you can’t compare apple with orange.
The link says it is based on the police white paper, I have no reason to doubt it—You don’t have to brag about Japan’s record in Yahoo answer in Japanese. If this is not the fact, what is the ratio of offences to detections for violent crime in Japan by your research? That is what you tried to compare with, though it is different from the ratio of the fugitive wanted at large.
http://www.npa.go.jp/hakusyo/h20/toukei/t1-01.pdf
Okay,I’ve found the one.
heinous crime 9,051
clear ups 6,461
the ratio 71%
English version:
http://www.npa.go.jp/english/seisaku5/20081008.pdf
(Page 53)
“a href” didn’t come out, but:
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=9kUCFtRjvgQ
I’m sure you get the general idea.
Yeah, but doesn’t this mean that they ALL “must have committed suicide” according to Koban Keystone theory.
No “japanese FBI” + police incompetence + cash-based society without much use of credit cards with fewer monetary paper trails to follow + they all look alike!
[The suspect has black hair, brown eyes, and is of slender build.]
Wonder if foreigners also have a better police-dodging cahnce in Japan?
Here are Sept 2007: London Metropolitain Police figures -
http://www.met.police.uk/crimestatistics/2007/200709.htm
On the bottom left of the page you will see three clickable links
Offences | Total Detections | Sanction Detections | Accused
http://www.met.police.uk/crimestatistics/definitions.htm
for explanations on these.
Pretty sure that the ratio of offences to detections for violent crime is:
14432 : (4904 + 2866)
14432 : 7770 solved (=53.84%)
14432 : (14432 – 7770) unsolved (=46.16%)
Note: This is a month-by-month basis. Crimes sometimes take longer to solve than one month. I’m hunting for annual stats.
Want to choose another month? :
http://www.met.police.uk/crimestatistics/index.htm
Click on the ‘Web Pages’ link.
***
Just found the Annual stats for Fiscal Year 2007 on
http://www.met.police.uk/crimestatistics/index.htm
Click on Financial Year 2007-2008 Summary ‘Web pages’ link, takes you to:
http://www.met.police.uk/crimestatistics/2008/2008_yend.htm
Pretty sure that the ratio of offences to detections for violent crime is:
172743 : (61353 + 35731)
172743 : 97084 solved (=56.20%)
172743 : (172743 – 97084) unsolved (=43.80%)
“you will see three clickable links”
Should read 4 clickable links… hehe! Does this give you confidence in my math abilities!? Believe me, it’s my editing at fault, I didn’t go back and change it!
This is an interesting statistic, it seemed high at first, but then you have to ask yourself exactly what constitutes a heinous crime. I’m trying to figure out what the rate is in America, I’d guess it would be lower simply because we deal with crimes like murder a LOT more.
Oh, and although its just my opinion, I think the statute of limitations on murder should be life.
Chris@ I’ve been looking for US ‘unsolved violent crime’ statistics, mixing it up with other relevant search terms on Google. I’m having trouble finding information for the US! It’s as if the US don’t want to admit there are any unsolved crimes – either that, or the FBI (US) are clearing up all the unsolved crimes. By-the-way, ‘unsolved violent crime’ (**this exact wording or phrase**) yields only 297 results on Google, so I’m not basing my search on this term! – Can someone supply me with nomenclature for the US police services?
Level3@’s idea – a Japanese style FBI is beginning to look like an attractive option for Japan policing.
I think the problem is that US police forces are still mainly state and local, so probably a lot of crime stats are by state or city.
The FBI is not exactly an all-powerful national police force. I’m pretty sure they can only be brought in if a crime or criminal involves more than one state, or has violated some federal law.
A fugitive murderer on the run is pretty much guaranteed to have crossed a state line, so the FBI can get involved.
In the US, many [most?] laws are still state laws
[This is also why it's particularly hard for Americans to get driver's licenses in Japan, no national standard]
Maybe the GAO has some reports?
The Department of Justice probably has some stats somewhere on their website.
Maybe try searching for just one state, like California of New York?
“Level3@’s idea – a Japanese style FBI is beginning to look like an attractive option for Japan policing.”
Let’s hope they wouldn’t consider structuring it after the Kempeitai – Then they’d be doing a little bit too good of a job policing the nation…
Did the Kempeitai execute fellow officers for failing to perform their duty properly? If so, they get my vote! HeHe!
Can’t we just send Dog the Bounty Hunter?
That would be the greatest TV Special ever! Dog in Japan!
It would be really interesting to compare but not only Japan and US.Germany,France,UK?