Who Should We Fear?

Jun Okamura of GlobalTalk 21 has posted some very interesting results from a survey conducted in Japan, South Korean, and China:

Question: The countries and regions that you think will be a military threat to your nation (multiple answers allowed)

Japan:
1. North Korea (73.6%)
2. China (46.1%)
3. Russia (24.3%)

China:
1. Japan (78.2%)
2. U.S. (75.2%)
3. Taiwan (36.6%)

South Korea:
1. North Korea (71.0%)
2. China (46.6%)
3. Japan (37.5%)

In a related story, statistics were released last week showing that over 80% of Japanese were fearful of a foreign attack on their country. North Korea, China, and Islamic terrorists were cited as possible threats. Should the Japanese people actually be worried about such issues?

18 comments - What do you think? Posted by James - September 24, 2007 at 12:55 pm

Categories: Politics Tags:

D-San

I don’t think Japan should be worrying about any foreign military activity anytime soon. For North Korea to do so will still take many years in preparation considering their crumbling economy. Japanese should be more worried about natural Disasters and integration.

http://www.japanprobe.com James

I’m pretty sure that North Korea could lob a missile over here without much trouble. It would be inviting massive retaliation upon them, but it would not take years of preparation to carry out such an attack…

Buster

So, how exactly do you think Northkorea would profit by firing missiles at Japan?

http://www.japanprobe.com James

I don’t think they would profit, but they’re still capable of carrying out an attack without years of preparation.
Sish

Thats the thing, countries don’t just lob missiles because they get retaliation in return. In order to strike you must be prepared for a mid to long term engagement…something that takes a lot of preparation.

Thus, the question is not “does a NK attack require years of preparation?” but instead, “has NK been preparing for an attack, and for how long?”
http://nonplayercharacter.blogspot.com/ NPC

Well if you think about it, a dictator who recognizes his country is falling apart may launch an attack for the hell of it as sort of a last effort thing. Though otherwise I’d say it’s pretty safe to sit back, relax, and let them decay.
Joseph K

I pretty much agree with NPC here. Desperation can be a pretty powerful influence in regards to lashing out. But then, governments, no matter how dictatorial, will always move rather slowly, and this means that there’ll probably always be time for people to clear their heads a bit before anything really dire happens.

But really, the only reason to worry about something like this is if you can do something about it, isn’t it? Why would you be worried, when the most you can do is “head for the hills” – and even then nothing’s guaranteed…?

http://son-of-gadfly-on-the-wall.blogspot.com Jun Okumura

I do think that there is a very small, but real, chance of rogue military elements in North Korea in a chaotic end game lobbing something this way as a last hurrah.

Given that China’s economic and security interests are mostly congruent with Japan’s, I do not see them as a military. Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines (and Malaysia as well?), not to mention Taiwan, have a little more (much more in the case of Taiwan) to fear from the Chinese military buildup, since they have relatively active sovereignty issues with China. (The conflict is much more passive in Japan’s case, much to the chagrin, no doubt, of the people of the Sapio persuasion.) And we now have a Prime Minister whose views are probably close to mine. It makes me (slightly) safer in this respect, in that there is less chance that misperceptions and mistrust will amplify minor incidents.

The Japanese Archipelago is problematic for Islamic terrorists, since gaijins are conspicuous, and there is no significant Moslem community to recruit from in the first place. There must be easier marks elsewhere.
http://son-of-gadfly-on-the-wall.blogspot.com Jun Okumura

~~…I do not see them as a military.~~
…I do not see them as a military threat.
annie

Japan needs to keep a close eye on North Korea and especially, China. China and Russia are teaming up militarily. Japan needs to find another alliance besides the U.S.

If China and Russia become the world’s next superpower house, the world will be suffering especially China’s neighbors. History will repeat itself, people.
fettlord

North Korea maybe have something to threat the world with but they are probably going for a headshot themself.

USA is a real dissfunctional country so you can never know what stupidity they are going to do next.

China & Russia are big countries and have a good control but if they want a war they should have done it 30 years ago so i don’t believe they want to.
zzzzz

ahhhh fear. Some people just love to be in fear. This is news for everyone who didn’t have their fill of spam/scare emails today…

they’re out to get you!!!
Aekutopia

As I’m Asian from Thailand.I think China and Japan should not fear each other. They should reinforce their tie and cooperate more and more. Obviously, China and USA+Japan didn’t trust each other, and Japan trust the West like USA and Australia more than its Asian Neighnours.

If Japan and China want to see a firm regional stability and peace, they must be a trusted partner. And Japan should not rely on the west too much. If China and Japan can be good friends, Asian Union could happen as EU in Europe.It’s just my dream.
zaciroth

If china got pissed for some reason. (It wouldn’t be right..and would be bad for economy.) They could be a threat…but north Korea isn’t a threat to anyone except south Korea..who has the United state backing and alot better economy. North Korea really isn’t a threat to anyone but themselves…China seems to be okay here lately so no worries. But these crazy Islamic groups (not all Islamics in all just the crazy ones) seem to be spreading everywhere. Its best if Japan just doesn’t let them spread that religion of so called peace there at all. It spreads violence worse than Christians.
j2

It’s interesting to note that Japan and South Korea have very close numbers for position one and two…perhaps when push comes to shove they will end up as odd allies.

Also it’s not really about who they fear or are feel threatened by (I mean…if anything, China’s just waiting to get an excuse to invade Taiwan, while Taiwan’s doing everything to avoid a fight), but who the nations feel will have the most probability of being involved in a war with.
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Who Should We Fear?

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